Tale of the Tape: 2025 Arch Madness
MBB: Let's break down who's playing the best heading into the Valley Tournament
Four months of hard work have led 12 teams to St. Louis to take their shot at winning the Missouri Valley Conference championship at Arch Madness. There are plenty of ebbs and flows during a 31-game season, but — what have you done for me lately? Let’s take a look at how all 12 teams have played in their last five games and see who’s coming to Enterprise Center playing their best basketball.
Drake — 4-1 in last 5 games vs. teams with 49-51 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 3rd; Defensive efficiency: 2nd
You can certainly argue the Bulldogs have played with fire coming down the stretch. In their last three games, Drake needed overtime to beat UNI and Missouri State, and edged Evansville on the road, 65-61. Bennett Stirtz, the newly-minted Larry Bird Trophy winner, is averaging 19.2 points per game in the last five, shooting 50.7% from the field. The Bulldogs have gone cool from the outside as of late, making 31.3% from three-point range, down from 36.1% for the entire season. Drake will not beat themselves, as they’ve turned it over nine times or fewer in three of the last five games. There are generally so few possessions in a Drake game (#364 out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo this season), if you fall behind early, it becomes very difficult to speed them up and, most importantly, catch up.
Bradley — 4-1 in last 5 games vs. teams with 56-44 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 2nd; Defensive efficiency: 7th
The Braves grabbed maybe their signature win of the year February 16th in Des Moines, as they beat Drake 61-59. Against a strong schedule down the stretch, they found multiple ways to win, including coming back from a 16-point second half deficit at home against Murray State to win in overtime. They haven’t gotten to the free throw line much lately, but that probably has a lot to do with the fact Bradley is shooting 42.3% from deep in their last five games, hitting 47 triples over that stretch — Duke Deen hit 21 himself. If the Braves can get some stops, they’ll be a tough out.
Northern Iowa — 3-2 in last 5 games vs. teams with 64-36 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 6th; Defensive efficiency: 1st
Not only is UNI defending at a high level, but they’re doing it without fouling, as opponents are only averaging 14.2 free throw attempts in the last five games. The Panthers played the toughest schedule down the stretch of anybody in the league and lived to tell about it. While they may have gotten a break by playing Murray State on a neutral floor, UNI took advantage of it with a win in Nashville — then followed that up with another win over Belmont two days later. Tytan Anderson has finished the season strong, shooting 59.3% from the field and averaging 18.0 points per game.
Belmont — 4-1 in last 5 games vs. teams with 41-59 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 5th; Defensive efficiency: 3rd
A Belmont team that is 9th in the Valley in defensive efficiency for the season may have gotten some kinks worked out down the stretch against a weak schedule. The Bruins allowed 70 points per game over the last five, down from 77.7 points per game for the season. Teams have been able to handle Belmont on the glass, as the Bruins are only chasing down 22.7% of their misses, while giving up an offensive rebound 32.3% of the time. I may have been on an island voting Tyler Lundblade First Team All-Missouri Valley Conference, but he’s made 19-of-37 (52.8%) of his three-pointers in the last five games, making six triples in two different games. He’s a true home run hitter for the Bruins.
Illinois State — 3-2 in last 5 games vs. teams with 41-59 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 4th; Defensive efficiency: 9th
The Redbirds struggled a bit down the stretch defensively, especially on the road, giving up 85 points at Indiana State and 88 at Southern Illinois. Illinois State had a much better effort in their regular season finale against Evansville, where they held the Aces to 53 points. ISU is forcing a turnover on 18.8% of their opponents’ possessions, which is 2nd in the Valley in the last five games. Forward Chase Walker is due for a big game after a disappointing final week of the season. In the final two games, Walker was 6-for-19 from the field, averaging 8.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Johnny Kinziger is 5-for-his-last-27 from three. As a career 38.9% three-point shooter, you can’t expect that slump to linger.
UIC — 3-2 in last 5 games vs. teams with 47-53 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 12th; Defensive efficiency: 8th
One of the great stories in the Valley for much of this season, the Flames, from a metric standpoint, limped to the finish line. They turned it over on 19.4% of their possessions, shooting 47.9% from two and only 31.7% from three in the final five games. Despite those below average numbers, UIC found a way to scratch out three wins down the stretch as they beat three of the lower ranked teams in the league in Missouri State, Evansville and Valpo. There are few players in the Valley with the physical stature of Sasa Ciani. The 6’9, 240-pound transfer from Xavier averaged around 11 points and eight rebounds per game in UIC’s three wins down the stretch, but just 2.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in their two losses to Drake and Northern Iowa.
Murray State — 2-3 in last 5 games vs. teams with 58-42 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 9th; Defensive efficiency: 6th
A defense that was really, really good a couple weeks ago slipped a bit down the stretch to 6th in efficiency. If the offense can catch up to the defense, the Racers could very well hang around St. Louis for awhile this weekend. Murray State is taking care of the ball as of late, turning it over on just 14.4% of their possessions, but the layup issues have returned. The Racers are last in the Valley, making just 41.6% of their two-point shots over the last five games. Murray State is getting to the free throw line a ton — north of 25 attempts per game — making 80.3% from the stripe. The formula has been pretty simple for the Racers: Make some free throws, make some layups, play with relentless effort on defense and more often than not, that equals a victory.
Southern Illinois — 1-4 in last 5 games vs. teams with 46-54 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 7th; Defensive efficiency: 10th
The Salukis have scuffled down the stretch trying to finish, but three of their last four losses were by five points or fewer. SIU is turning teams over on just 12.4% of their possessions in the last five games, which is the lowest turnover rate in the Valley. The Salukis are doing a good job on defense of giving opponents just one shot, as they’re giving up an offensive rebound on only 24.5% of their opponents’ misses. Kennard Davis has finished the season with a flurry, shooting 51.4% from the field and averaging 20.6 points per game. SIU started the conference season 0-5, and ended it 1-4. In the middle ten games, they were 7-3, so they’ve shown they can string several good games together, which they’ll need to do in St. Louis.
Indiana State — 2-3 in last 5 games vs. teams with 48-52 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 1st; Defensive efficiency: 12th
No matter how good the Sycamore offense has been the last few weeks, the poor defense has betrayed them more than they’d like. But when you see the 95 they put on the board against SIU in the regular season finale, it reminds you how frightening that offense can be. Indiana State is shooting nearly 57.0% from two-point range and 36.8% from three. Samage Teel has been feast or famine with his scoring down the stretch. Teel scored 36 points in the Sycamores’ win over Illinois State, but scored just two in ISU’s loss to Belmont. While he only scored two points against the Bruins, Teel had 11 assists, showing he can impact a game in other ways than just scoring.
Evansville — 2-3 in last 5 games vs. teams with 51-49 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 10th; Defensive efficiency: 4th
David Ragland’s team essentially plays five guys, but those five have shown they can beat anybody on any given night. Remember, they scored 58 points in the second half in their home win over Murray State. The Aces also had Drake nearly dead to rights last week, before the Bulldogs eked out a 65-61 at the Ford Center. Evansville may have more size than anybody in the league. With 6’7 Tanner Cuff and 6’7 Gabriel Pozzato on the wings, and 6’10 Joshua Hughes and 6’10 Connor Turnbull (the Valley’s Defensive Player of the Year) manning the middle, the Aces can be tough to score against. With all the size, do not forget point guard Tayshawn Comer, who may be the fastest guy in the league with the ball in his hands. Comer is averaging 17.8 points and 5.4 assists per game over the last five.
Valparaiso — 2-3 in last 5 games vs. teams with 43-57 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 8th; Defensive efficiency: 11th
The Beacons are led by Second Team All-Conference forward Cooper Schwieger. In the regular season finale against UIC, Schwieger scored 33 points, grabbed 18 rebounds and dished out five assists. He’s the first player in the country in the last 14 years to have a 33-18-5 stat line in a regulation game — Schwieger has the ability to win a game by himself. He’ll need some help, as the Beacons are only shooting 47.9% from two in the last five games, and they’re only chasing down 20.5% of their misses — the second-lowest offensive rebounding rate in Valley play. If help comes, it will likely be named All Wright. The Missouri Valley Freshman of the Year is averaging 22.2 points in the last five, while shooting 38.2% from three. This is another team that if they can string some stops together, they might be able to pull off an upset or two.
Missouri State — 0-5 in last 5 games vs. teams with 57-43 MVC record
Offensive efficiency: 11th; Defensive efficiency: 5th
At 2-18 this season in the Missouri Valley, I’m not sure anybody is expecting anything out of Missouri State this week. But if you look closer, they’ve started playing better the last few weeks. While they went 0-5 in the last three weeks, the Bears played the third-toughest schedule in those five games, losing to UIC by five, to Valpo by two, to Illinois State by two at the buzzer, to Belmont by nine and to Drake by eight in overtime. If you take the Bears for granted, do it at your own peril. Part of why they’ve lost so many games is they turn the ball over on 21.4% of their possessions — the highest rate in the Valley in the last five games. The Bears are also allowing teams to make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — that’s the highest percentage in the league. On the flip side, Missouri State does not give up offensive rebounds and defends the three-point line well.
Parity has been the most significant word of the season in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. 2-18 Missouri State took 17-3 Drake to overtime — TWICE! Every team in the league, on any given night, can beat anybody. It’ll be fun to see how much madness we’ll have at Arch Madness this week.
Thursday’s Games:
12:00pm: (8) Southern Illinois vs. (9) Indiana State
2:30pm: (5) Illinois State vs. (12) Missouri State
6:00pm: (7) Murray State vs. (10) Evansville
8:30pm: (6) UIC vs. (11) Valparaiso