The bracket with one game to go ...
MBB: Here's how the Arch Madness bracket looks heading to the regular season finale
The Missouri Valley Conference’s regular season will end on Sunday. With one game left to go in the regular season, here’s how the 12 Missouri Valley Conference teams would be seeded if Arch Madness was starting tomorrow:
Drake (16-3) — has clinched the #1 seed and the regular season title
Northern Iowa (14-5) — thanks to beating Bradley in head-to-head meeting
Bradley (14-5)
Belmont (11-7) — has clinched the #4 seed
Illinois State (9-10) — thanks to NET advantage over UIC and Murray State
UIC (9-10) — thanks to NET advantage over Murray State
Murray State (9-10)
Southern Illinois (8-11) — thanks to NET advantage over Evansville
Evansville (8-11)
Indiana State (7-12)
Valparaiso (6-13)
Missouri State (2-17) — has clinched the #12 seed
#1 Drake, #4 Belmont and #12 Missouri State are the only three seeds that have been locked up. Bradley hosts Northern Iowa on Sunday, with the winner getting the #2 seed and the loser getting the #3 seed.
The three games that are most important to Murray State’s seeding is the Racers’ game at Belmont, Evansville at Illinois State and Valparaiso at UIC. Illinois State, UIC and Murray State all enter the final day tied at 9-10. Here are the quick, although all of the tiebreaker scenarios for the Racers:
If Murray State ends up tied with only Illinois State, Illinois State gets the higher seed due to winning the only head-to-head meeting
If Murray State ends up tied with only UIC, the NET rankings will determine who has the higher seed due to them splitting the regular season series
If Murray State, UIC and Illinois State end up tied (and even if Southern Illinois ends up joining that tie), the NET will determine the seeding since those teams did not play each other an even amount of times this year
Matt Hackman, on X, posted this graphic with all the seeding scenarios for every possible outcome on Sunday. (Note: The Drake/Missouri State game on Sunday has no bearing on any seeding scenarios.)
There is no scenario where Murray State is any seed other than the 5, 6 or 7. If the NET is needed, Illinois State looks to be safe with a ranking of #119. UIC and Murray State will come down to the 11th hour, as UIC enters the weekend ranked #142 while Murray State is #143.
With how the standings look through 19 games, here’s what the brackets would like if Arch Madness started tomorrow:
Top half of the bracket:
#8 Southern Illinois vs. #9 Evansville
The 8/9 winner plays #1 Drake
#5 Illinois State vs. #12 Missouri State
The 5/12 winner plays #4 Belmont
Bottom half of the bracket:
#6 UIC vs. #11 Valparaiso
The 6/11 winner plays #3 Bradley
#7 Murray State vs. #10 Indiana State
The 7/10 winner vs. #2 Northern Iowa
If Murray State ends up as the #7 seed, they’ll play at 6:00pm next Thursday night in St. Louis. If they improve to the #6 seed, they’ll play at 8:30pm next Thursday night. If the Racers can climb all the way to the #5 seed, they’ll play at 2:30pm Thursday afternoon.